Sunday, April 5, 2009

Dow 7000, FTW!

Long time, no always sounds better in IMs than it does in a post. Anyway...a certain person who shall remain nameless pointed me in the direction of another person who shall NOT remain nameless, his name is "HowTheWorldWorks". OK...stop laughing, he's widely recognized as an expert debater...stop laughing, this is serious! Have you got that out of your system now? Good.

Now...I'm just a Z-list blogger, while he's debating with YouTube celebrities like The Amazing Atheist, and Thunderf00t...but, he's talking philosophy, economics, investing and politics. OK...he stuck body parts into a hornet's nest.

This one is a favorite of mine...simple, short, and so full of Epic Fail. So...where does the Fail Begin? First, he shows ignorance about the stock market, and the economy at about 0:01 in the clip. Sure, the Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 stocks dropped below 7000. So, lets start at the beginning, the use of the Dow 30 was a bad choice, it's the most famous index, but not representative, but...either way, I'll give you, it was an ugly market.'re blaming Obama for that horrible market? If you are the genius debater you claim to be, then you would have realized that basing your opinion on the short term fluctuations of the market is pretty stupid.

First, we have to remember that, as Benjamin Graham said, "In the short-term, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine", what does that mean? The market is subject to short-term radical changes based on the mood of the participants (like a never-ending game of "American Idol"). I mean, really, was the NASDAQ worth something like 5000 points in 2000? No, it wasn't, we were sucked into the euphoria of the bubble and bought stocks at insane prices, like voting for them. But, in the long-run, a stock's value comes down to what it can earn for the shareholder, weighing their prospects as an investment.

In the current market, we're having a hard time determining the value of a stock, because, in many cases, determining the value of the underlying assets is impossible. At least, during the technology bubble, we could determine the value of a company (servers and offices had a value that could be determined), in this wreck, we have no way of determining the actual value of many of the most badly damaged companies. Remember, we had leverage on top of leverage, hedge funds that were levered up
(and operations that were effectively hedge funds), buying CDOs and CDSs and CDO squared (each of which already was levered), so a small drop in the value of the underlying asset becomes a massive drop in the value of the derivatives of it, which mostly wipes out the holders of the derivatives (the hedges and similar groups).

So, why did all this happen at that time? Why a stomach churning 25% drop in the S&P 500 Year-to-Date? Why not? I see absolutely no fundamental reason for the market to have been so high in 2007-8, since all the forces that have caused the 2007-2009 crash were active and visible during that time (although, the scale of the forces and the way they've formed a self-reinforcing recession/depression was not immediately obvious). It happened at that time, because that's when the mood struck the market to sell things, there may have been some catalyst that provoked it, but I will leave that argument to the historians.

Now, we've handled the first...say...five seconds of this video. Let's skip ahead to about 3:55 when we return to the adventures of Dow and Dumber. First, he says the drop is due to the massive spending by President Obama, whom he says has spent more money in the history of the world. Just stop there, he hasn't "spent" money, heck, he's barely had time to make plans to request to be allowed to spend money. Second, he says the stimulus is supposed to jump-start the Dow and boost the economy short-term, here, he seems to confuse the financial system, and the economic system, and while they are connected and they do affect each other, they are separate things (and frankly, the financial system deserves no stimulus). The stimulus plan's effect on share prices most likely won't be felt until companies start announcing contracts paid for by the plan, and yes, the plan takes time to go into effect. But it will be a more useful stimulus over the long-term than certain previous plans where the Treasury just sends out a check.

Now...when you wrote this, the Dow had just dipped below 7000. Now, we're over 8000, if I were stupid and deceptive, I'd argue that the 14% increase from the low was the result of the stimulus plan working. But I'm not stupid or deceptive. I notice you haven't commented about the Dow's level recently? (By the way, I put some money in my 401k on March 6, 2009, I'm happy with a swing like that, that's change I can believe in :-D)

I actually think we will be going lower again, though, but that's not because of President Obama's policies, things were set in motion years ago that would lead to this, even back in President Clinton's day with the Commodity Futures Modernization Act, a moribund SEC, OTS and CFTC. These things were all visible from 2006 or even before, but they only started to fall apart in 2007. Now, these problems in the financial system are dragging our economic system down. Good luck all, we'll need it.

Monday, December 10, 2007

Attempted Isolation...

I tried a Bane (Isolation) Implant today that one of my very good friends, Miss Giri Gritzi made for me...very odd. A combination of relaxation, not having to do anything or say anything, and terror.

Only about 5 hours, so far, and she's been very easy on me. Estimated total of 7 hours. But in return for giving me a taste of it, I had to agree to a 12 hour stint, but one that's more challenging.

And I also have to keep the Implant on even when it's not locked except under certain circumstances on a more or less permanent basis. I'll be free, except after it's locked at times we agree on.

Does that mean I'll eventually become a pet? Doubt it, did that RL, never want to get there again. Does it mean that I want to try this with a *much* more severe restriction? Yes. I want to try a similar program to what Sophia went through, with all the evil ideas that Marine can come up with. ALL of them, even the ones she hasn't implemented yet.

And I want to do it with at LEAST one other Bane, better yet, several, all of us locked in identical outfits, trapped in a sim with each other.

Saturday, December 1, 2007

Comments about Friends, and Isolation, and Words

I consider Marine Kelley one of my dearest friend in SL, kind, sweet, and...very, very scary. What really scares me is that I *know* I should be scared of her, but I'm not.

For evidence that I should be scared of her: Eudeamon And yes, she's as serious as a heart attack about this and so is S-6734, formerly known as Sophia Barrett. I was unable to read past Chapter 6 as of yet.

I was allowed a unique privilege, I was allowed to speak to S-6734, Miss Kelley allowed this, but only at a price. Three more days in the Bane Suit for every 15 minutes that I visited, I spoke quickly, trying to get in at 15 minutes or a bit less, to avoid making it six additional days.

She remained gagged, tightly, so communication to me from her was barely intelligible, but I was able to speak to her, and to say that I, and others missed her terribly. I also got to tell her that, in a way, I envied her but I'd NEVER do what she did. Her reply was completely unintelligible, but yet, I knew she was saying something about Miss Kelley making a suit for me. Which is exactly the comment I'd expect from S-6734.

I got my last comment in at about 14 minutes, and afterwards, Miss Kelley and I spoke. I felt very bad about adding time to her sentence, only able to hear gag-talk and excruciatingly short emotes. It wasn't much time, at least, not as a percentage of her total time, but still. Miss Kelley reassured me that it was good for me to know that she was OK, and that it was good for her to know that she wasn't truly abandoned, and so did "Bubble Girl"(a.k.a. Sophia Barrett) on Miss Kelley's blog.

But Miss Kelley also said afterwards that no further interaction would be permitted, as it was too painful for both parties. That hurt, that I actually drove her further away, for trying to be with her for a little bit. I spent a bit of time examining my reasons for wanting to speak to her, I wanted to do that, not so much out of concern for her, but for selfish reasons, that, I think was the real reason I felt bad. It wasn't that I felt bad about what was being done to her, in fact, I find the idea extremely hot, it was my motivations for doing so. My belief is that no matter how good a result of an action, if it had a bad motivation, it will be forever tainted by the motivation, and I was greedy, pure and simple.

Why was I unable to read past Chapter 6? Why was I so affected by S-6734's condition? In SL, we're represented by wonderfully detailed avatars, but in the end, in SL, we are limited only by our ability to communicate. And S-6734 can't, except to Miss Kelley, and so, until S-6734's sentence is up, Sophia Barrett has ceased to be. In chapter 6, the protagonist is controlled as she tries to write, and no intelligible words can be written and she can't speak at all, I tried to imagine myself utterly unable to communicate for even a few months. If I'd had a more vivid imagination, I'd probably have had a panic attack.

But in spite of all this scariness floating around Miss Kelley, there are perhaps three people in SL that I've me that I'd trust if I were wearing one in-world, and she's one of them.

My Brief Intro

Hello, to all who know me from Second Life, or those who don't and wish to know me. Or to those who don't wish to me at all.

I am Jayleia Greene, kinky, geeky Role Player, I can be, and HAVE been many things, and will be many more. From an innocent, unsuspecting waif just off the bus, to an aggressive, sadistic prison guard, or other, more bizarre things.

Don't ask me about my RL, I *am* Jayleia Greene, I will tell you what I need to tell you about my RL when I want to tell you. I am fairly open, but don't ask me for RL contact info.

You can often find me in the SLBI offices in Zhora where I am a Special Agent in the Second Life Bureau of Investigation, or wandering around Hayao being something, I haven't determined what, yet. But, I can turn up damn near anywhere, especially if there's cuffs, cages or locked doors nearby.